Sudan's Transition from Autocracy to the Brink of Collapse
Almost four years ago, the citizens of Sudan were rejoicing in a successful revolution, having ousted long-term dictator Omar al-Bashir. Now, the East African nation is teetering on the edge of complete disarray, similar to the current situations in Yemen and Libya.
Last Saturday, warring military factions commenced a violent clash in Khartoum, the country's capital. The adversaries battled for control of vital national assets such as airports, military bases, and compounds, causing the violence to spill into public streets and spread across the country. Approximately 45 million Sudanese citizens are essentially trapped in their homes, fearing potential casualties from the conflict. At least 180 people have been reported dead, including three humanitarian workers from the World Food Programme.
The conflict involves two antagonistic entities and their influential armed forces. Leading the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, is guided by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti. Both sides have a dubious record of human rights violations.
So, how did Sudan transition from overthrowing an authoritarian regime and establishing a nascent democracy a few years ago to being on the verge of state disintegration?
On April 11, 2019, Bashir was toppled after months of protests driven by Sudan's unions, leading to a military coup by the SAF and RSF. Both Burhan and Hemeti united to oust their former superior. This gave rise to hopes for a democratic future. However, social movements, such as the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), which led the protests, often struggle to convert their demonstration momentum into tangible political power.
Civilian leaders entered negotiations with the military shortly after Bashir's removal in April 2019, but the pro-democracy forces struggled to negotiate with the organized military due to leadership challenges. The momentum for democracy was quashed in June 2019 when RSF soldiers violently dismantled the sit-in protests, resulting in over 100 deaths.
Following the June massacre, a transitional constitution was signed in August 2019, granting most of Sudan's power to the SAF and RSF. Burhan assumed the position of head of state, and Hemeti was given an elevated political role. Elections were scheduled for 2022, but few had faith that they would occur.
Violence escalated outside Khartoum, with regions like Darfur experiencing fresh conflicts orchestrated by RSF troops, leading to the displacement of over 430,000 people. Soldiers did not hesitate to discuss the atrocities they committed against civilians.
The transitional period began in August 2019, and Abdalla Hamdok, the civilian prime minister, had limited power due to the constitution's structure. Burhan, as the head of state, aimed to preserve the SAF's powers. Hamdok was on the verge of economic recovery when Burhan and the SAF intervened. Hamdok was eventually ousted in a military coup in October 2021.
Following the October 2021 coup, the United States and United Nations proposed a revised version of the transitional constitution, arguing that it was the best path to democracy. However, many believed that returning to a government led by Burhan was not the way to establish democracy.
Tensions between the SAF and RSF escalated, leading to the recent clashes. The international policy that attempted to merge the SAF and RSF led to this violent outbreak. Neither Hemeti nor Burhan was willing to relinquish their amassed power.
Despite the recent history of failed revolutions in countries like Myanmar, Tunisia, Egypt, and Sudan, it's important to remember that a nation's political fortune is a constant battle. As of now, the Sudanese people are merely hoping to survive each day. The situation in Sudan serves as a reminder that a revolution is merely the beginning of change, not its conclusion.