Armenia might be the next target of Vladimir Putin's aggressive strategies, according to advocates who wish for the country to flourish as a democratic state aligned with the West. The UK Foreign Office has emphasized the importance of preventing Russian destabilization efforts in Armenia, but there are warnings that the nation's future is at risk.
The UK government has expressed support for Armenia's attempts to distance itself from Russian influence, yet concerns remain that the country, home to about three million people, could face significant threats. David Grigorian, a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a prominent member of Armenia’s National Democratic Alliance, cautions that if Putin succeeds in taking control of eastern Ukraine, Armenia could be his next focus.
Grigorian advocates for Armenia's NATO membership, warning that a crisis is unfolding. A major worry is the possibility of Russia backing an invasion of Armenia by neighboring Azerbaijan. Although Armenia and Russia were once considered allies, Armenia's parliament recently initiated steps toward joining the European Union.
Former defense minister Tobias Ellwood remarked that Russia's influence over Armenia is diminishing, and Putin is unlikely to relinquish control without resistance. Armenia's move to distance itself from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s equivalent of NATO, has made it vulnerable to Moscow's hybrid warfare tactics, including cyber-attacks and covert interference.
Ellwood stressed the need for the UK to remain alert, support Armenia's sovereignty, and counter Russian subversion, emphasizing that this situation extends beyond Armenia and involves deterring Moscow's broader ambitions.
Armenia and Azerbaijan, long at odds over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, are reportedly close to signing a peace agreement. However, Grigorian warns this could lead to further conflict. In September 2023, a swift offensive by Azerbaijan forced tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians to flee Nagorno-Karabakh, and Grigorian argues the new agreement might leave Armenia strategically vulnerable.
He believes that under current geopolitical and economic conditions, Armenia could lose its viability as a state if the deal proceeds. Grigorian criticized the agreement as a plan to demean a nation striving for freedom from Russian dominance, calling it a recipe for renewed conflict rather than peace.
He urged global supporters of Armenia to speak out against its potential destruction, highlighting Armenia's historic role as the first Christian nation facing overwhelming threats. While standing up for smaller nations may not be widely popular, he argues it remains a moral imperative.
The UK has encouraged Armenia and Azerbaijan to finalize their peace deal promptly to ensure its success. A government source stated that the UK opposes ongoing Kremlin efforts to use disinformation, criminal activities, and corruption to undermine sovereignty and democratic processes.