Experts have criticized the Myanmar military's pledge to hold elections in late 2025 or early 2026, labeling it a "sham" that could lead to increased violence. The military, which took control in a 2021 coup, announced this timeline through state media, marking the first specific timeframe since the coup that was met with widespread public opposition and sparked armed resistance, leading to ongoing conflict.
China, an ally of Myanmar's military, has shown support for the election plans, aiming to safeguard its economic interests in the region. However, Western nations and election monitoring groups are expected to dismiss the elections as illegitimate. Many opposition parties are barred from participating or choose to boycott the elections, and nearly 22,000 political prisoners, including ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, remain detained. Her party, the National League for Democracy, was disbanded for not re-registering under new electoral laws imposed after the coup.
The military's ability to conduct elections is questionable, as it has lost control over significant parts of the country to opposition forces. A recent study indicates the military controls only 21% of Myanmar's territory, although it still holds major cities. The military's census, intended to prepare voter lists, was only completed in less than half of the country's townships due to these territorial challenges.
Human Rights Watch's deputy Asia director, Bryony Lau, emphasized that any election under current conditions would be a facade, urging international condemnation and denial of technical support for the military's plans. The prospect of elections is alarming for Myanmar's citizens, as the military's past crackdowns on dissent suggest further violence is likely to ensure voting occurs in controlled areas. Opposition groups may also resist violently.
The Chin Human Rights Organization has called on Western democracies to denounce the junta's election plans. Debbie Stothard, founder of Altsean-Burma, expressed concern that the elections could lead to more bloodshed, noting a significant increase in airstrikes in 2024 compared to previous years. Areas inaccessible to the junta have been targeted with airstrikes, seemingly to eliminate opposition.
A statement by election experts from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance in February firmly rejected the junta's election plans, arguing that a vote would not bring peace or stability but would instead deepen divisions and fuel violence. Southeast Asian foreign ministers have also advised the junta to prioritize a ceasefire over elections.
Min Aung Hlaing, the junta leader, has repeatedly extended a state of emergency while promising elections. During a visit to Belarus, he stated that elections are planned for December 2025 or January 2026, with 53 political parties registered to participate. He also mentioned inviting Belarusian observers, referencing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's controversial election victory, which was widely dismissed as fraudulent.