Japan is set to position long-range missiles on Kyushu, its southern island, as part of a strategy to enhance its "counterstrike capabilities" amid growing concerns about the security alliance with the United States. These missiles, which can reach up to 1,000 kilometers, are intended to target areas in North Korea and China's coastal regions. They are expected to be stationed next year at two existing bases on Kyushu, reinforcing defenses around the critical Okinawa island chain.
While there are no plans to deploy these long-range missiles on the Okinawa islands, which are just 110 kilometers from Taiwan, to avoid escalating tensions with China, the islands already have shorter-range missile systems in place. Yoichi Shimada, a professor emeritus at Fukui Prefectural University, argues that Japan's response to increasing threats from China and North Korea should include the deployment of more advanced weaponry to ensure stronger security.
On March 6, former U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the Japan-U.S. security treaty as being one-sided, noting that the U.S. is obligated to protect Japan without a reciprocal commitment. The treaty, established in 1951 when Japan was under U.S. occupation, limits Japan's military actions due to its pacifist constitution, which was influenced by the U.S. after World War II.
Shimada suggests that enhancing Japan's missile capabilities could strengthen ties with the U.S., and that Trump's calls for more balanced defense agreements are not unreasonable. However, Trump's comments about allies, including those in NATO, have raised concerns in Japan about the U.S.'s commitment to longstanding treaties, as noted by Robert Dujarric of Temple University in Tokyo.
Dujarric points out that the U.S.-Japan alliance appears strained, and there is uncertainty about U.S. support if Japan were attacked by China. Two Ground Self-Defense Force bases on Kyushu, Camp Yufuin in Oita and Camp Kengun in Kumamoto, are being considered for the new missile systems, which are said to be advanced versions of the existing Type-12 land-to-ship guided missiles.
This development is part of a broader effort to increase Japan's military capabilities. Dujarric believes Japan must reevaluate its security policies in response to changing global dynamics. If Japan begins to doubt U.S. military support, it could lead to discussions about acquiring nuclear weapons, a topic that has been largely avoided since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.