Canada's Liberal Party, under the leadership of Mark Carney, appears poised for a remarkable comeback, with recent polls suggesting they could form a majority government. This turnaround comes just months after the party's prospects seemed dire, with many predicting a significant defeat.
In January, political analysts were pessimistic about Justin Trudeau's Liberals, speculating whether the party would face a complete collapse or merely a severe setback. However, new polling data from three firms this week indicates a dramatic change in their favor. Carney, the newly appointed prime minister, is now considering calling an early election.
Philippe Fournier, a political analyst, updated his website 338Canada, which analyzes national polls and projects election outcomes. For the first time, his analysis gives the Liberals a 55% chance of securing a majority, a stark contrast to the less than 1% chance they had in January.
For the past two years, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre capitalized on a controversial carbon tax and Trudeau's unpopularity to boost his party's chances of a sweeping victory. Pollsters had predicted a significant Conservative majority, with their win probability exceeding 99% for over a year and a half. As recently as January, even the most favorable polls for the Liberals showed them trailing the Conservatives by 20 points, with some indicating a 27-point gap.
However, Trudeau's resignation and threats from Donald Trump shifted the political landscape dramatically. In a recent article, Fournier highlighted the "stunning Conservative collapse," noting that the Tories, once with a 15% chance of winning, now risk losing one of the largest polling leads in Canadian history.
Most Canadian polling firms now show a significant swing towards the Liberals, to the detriment of both the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party (NDP). If these trends continue into the federal election, the NDP could lose its party status in the House of Commons.
Éric Grenier, a political analyst, remarked on the unprecedented nature of this shift, attributing much of it to Trump's influence. The situation is not just about a new leadership honeymoon but also reflects the volatility caused by external threats.
For Poilievre, who had tapped into populist sentiments and drawn comparisons to Trump, the path forward is uncertain without the easy targets of Trudeau and the carbon tax. His aggressive political style, effective in opposition, seems less successful as nationalism overtakes partisanship. Recently, Poilievre held an event with an "Axe the Tax" sign, even after Carney had eliminated the carbon tax.
Political commentator Robyn Urback noted that the Conservatives are still fighting a campaign they never got to run. Meanwhile, a poll from the Angus Reid Institute showed Canadians favoring Carney over Poilievre on issues related to the trade war and the country's economic future. Carney is now seen as the preferred choice for prime minister by 41% of Canadians, compared to 29% for Poilievre. Previously, with Trudeau in office, Poilievre led by 19 points on this question.
If these trends hold, the Liberals, once considered a fading force, could be on track for a fourth term, this time with a majority. The influence of Trump on Canadian politics is evident, as Trudeau's approval ratings surged to 47% after he confronted a US-led trade war and delivered passionate speeches about defending Canada's sovereignty, a significant increase from his all-time low of 22% just weeks before stepping down.