Four years ago, Sudan was filled with hope as its citizens celebrated the ousting of long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir. Today, the nation faces the threat of descending into chaos akin to what is seen in Yemen or Libya.
Recently, fierce battles erupted in Khartoum between rival military factions vying for control over strategic locations like airports and military bases. This violence quickly spread, trapping around 45 million Sudanese in their homes, fearful of the deadly crossfire. The conflict has already claimed at least 180 lives, including three humanitarian workers from the World Food Programme.
The struggle involves two main factions: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti. Both groups have been accused of numerous human rights abuses.
Sudan's journey from overthrowing a dictator to the brink of collapse began on April 11, 2019, when Bashir was deposed following months of protests led by unions. The SAF and RSF initially united to remove Bashir but soon found themselves at odds.
The initial optimism for a democratic transition was palpable. Protesters had created a vibrant "sit-in" in Khartoum, demanding change. However, the grassroots nature of movements like the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) often makes it difficult to convert protest momentum into political power. After Bashir's fall, civilian leaders struggled to negotiate effectively with the military, which was better organized.
The pro-democracy movement's influence waned after RSF forces violently dispersed the sit-in in June 2019, killing over 100 people. A transitional constitution was signed in August 2019, but it largely favored the military, with Burhan as head of state and Hemeti in a prominent political role. Promised elections for 2022 were met with skepticism.
During the transitional period, civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok faced significant challenges. The legacy of decades of dictatorship left Sudan's political and economic systems in disarray, and Burhan and Hemeti blocked major reforms. Meanwhile, violence flared in regions like Darfur, where RSF troops instigated ethnic conflicts, displacing over 430,000 people.
Tensions between the SAF and RSF escalated. Burhan saw Hemeti's forces as undisciplined upstarts, while Hemeti believed it was time for Darfur to lead Sudan. Hamdok was on the verge of economic reforms when Burhan orchestrated a military coup in October 2021, removing him from power.
Following the coup, international efforts to restore democracy were criticized as ineffective. Attempts to unify the SAF and RSF into a single army failed, as neither leader wanted to relinquish power. This pressure eventually led to the recent outbreak of violence.
Despite setbacks, the lesson from Sudan is that revolutions are just the beginning of change. The Sudanese people continue to hope for a future where democracy can flourish, but for now, their immediate concern is survival.