India is observing with caution as Bangladesh and Pakistan begin to mend their historically strained relationship. The political upheaval in Bangladesh, which saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ousted last year, has led to unexpected developments, including a warming of ties with Pakistan, a former adversary.
In a significant move, the two nations have initiated direct trade, with Bangladesh importing 50,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan. Additionally, direct flights and military exchanges have resumed, visa processes have been eased, and there are reports of security cooperation.
The history between these countries is complex and painful, dating back to 1971 when Bangladesh, then East Pakistan, fought for independence from Pakistan with India's support. Although relations were amicable between 2001 and 2006 under a different Bangladeshi government, they cooled during Hasina's tenure from 2009, as she aligned closely with India and distanced herself from Pakistan. However, following her departure amid widespread protests, the relationship appears to be improving.
Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladeshi diplomat, notes that the relationship is returning to a more typical neighborly dynamic after a challenging period. India, with its own tense history with Pakistan, is closely monitoring these developments.
Relations between Bangladesh and India have soured since Hasina's exit, particularly as India has not responded to Bangladesh's requests to extradite her to face charges she denies. Some analysts view the rekindled ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan as a strategic counterbalance to India's influence.
Beyond trade, there have been other significant interactions. Bangladesh's interim government leader, Muhammad Yunus, has met with Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at various international forums. Military ties are also strengthening, with a high-level Bangladeshi military delegation visiting Pakistan and participating in joint exercises.
Veena Sikri, a former Indian high commissioner to Bangladesh, sees this renewed closeness as reminiscent of past tensions, particularly concerning allegations of Pakistani support for insurgents in Bangladesh, which both countries denied.
India is concerned about the implications of renewed military cooperation between Bangladesh and Pakistan, especially given past allegations of Pakistani influence on Bangladeshi Islamist parties. The current Bangladeshi administration has dismissed reports of Pakistani intelligence activities in Dhaka as unfounded.
Despite these developments, analysts believe Bangladesh is aware of the importance of maintaining good relations with India due to their economic and cultural ties. However, unresolved issues from the 1971 war, including Bangladesh's demand for a formal apology from Pakistan, remain a barrier to fully normalizing relations.
Economists suggest that the two countries could benefit from enhanced trade relations, which are currently limited. With Pakistan's large population offering a potential market for Bangladeshi goods, easing trade barriers could be mutually beneficial.
These topics may be on the agenda during an upcoming visit by Pakistan's foreign minister to Dhaka. As Bangladesh approaches its general elections, the future of its foreign policy could shift, but for India, maintaining a stable and friendly Bangladesh is crucial for regional peace.