Trump Criticizes Biden's Economic Record, But Data Tells a Different Story
According to key indicators like employment, GDP growth, and stock market performance, the U.S. economy was thriving. Donald Trump frequently claims he took over a struggling economy from Joe Biden, a narrative that many Americans believe despite evidence to the contrary. At a recent Tesla event, Trump stated that the economy "went to hell" under Biden. He also described inheriting an economic disaster and inflation crisis in a speech to Congress.
Contrary to Trump's assertions, the economy was robust when Biden handed over the presidency. Despite public dissatisfaction with inflation, the unemployment rate was a mere 4.1% when Biden left office, and his administration boasted the lowest average jobless rate since the 1960s. Inflation had decreased to 2.9%, aligning closely with the Federal Reserve's target.
GDP growth was also strong, with a 3.1% increase at the end of Biden's term. Post-pandemic, the U.S. economy outpaced those of the UK, France, Germany, and other G7 countries. The Economist even described the U.S. economy as "the envy of the world" at that time.
While Trump criticizes Biden's job creation record, the U.S. added 16.6 million jobs during Biden's presidency, more than any previous four-year term. In contrast, Trump's first term saw a net loss of 2.7 million jobs, largely due to the pandemic. Even before the pandemic, job growth under Trump was slower than during Biden's tenure.
Trump frequently touts his tariffs as a boon for manufacturing, yet under Biden, the U.S. gained 750,000 manufacturing jobs, the most since the 1970s. Biden's policies, including green jobs legislation and the Chips Act, spurred significant manufacturing investment.
Biden took pride in the economic progress during his presidency, though he struggled to convince the public of its success. He noted that inflation-adjusted incomes rose by nearly $4,000, and unions secured substantial wage increases. Small business applications reached 20 million, and the economy grew at an average rate of 3% annually, outpacing other advanced economies. Domestic energy production also hit record levels.
Economists largely disagree with Trump's portrayal of the economy he inherited. Paul Krugman described the economy at the end of Biden's term as nearly ideal, while Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics called it "about as good as it ever gets."
Trump often focuses on the stock market, which performed well during Biden's presidency. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 39%, and the S&P 500 surged by 55.7%, including a 28% rise in 2024. In contrast, the stock market has declined since Trump took office, partly due to concerns over his tariff policies.
While there were economic challenges under Biden, such as housing affordability and inflation driven by global supply chain issues and geopolitical tensions, Trump overlooks these factors in his criticism.
As Trump's trade policies unsettle markets and lead to cautious investment decisions, economists warn of a potential recession. Trump's tendency to deflect blame suggests he may hold Biden responsible if the economy falters.