Experts have criticized Myanmar's military junta's announcement of elections slated for December 2025 or January 2026, labeling it a "sham" and expressing concerns about potential increased violence. The military's promise, made public through state media, marks the first specific timeline since their 2021 coup, which sparked widespread public opposition and armed resistance, leading to ongoing conflict.
While China, a military ally, supports the election plans to safeguard its economic interests, Western nations and election observers are expected to dismiss the vote's legitimacy. Many opposition parties are either barred from participating or choose to boycott, and nearly 22,000 political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, remain jailed. Her party, the National League for Democracy, was dissolved for not re-registering under new electoral laws post-coup.
The military's control is limited, having lost significant territory to opposition groups. A recent study indicates the military holds just 21% of the country, primarily in major urban areas. The junta's census, intended for voter list preparation, covered less than half of the townships due to these territorial losses.
Bryony Lau from Human Rights Watch emphasized that any election under current conditions would be a farce, urging the international community to reject the military's election plans and withhold technical support. The prospect of elections is alarming for ordinary citizens, who fear further violence.
Last year’s census saw widespread fear among participants, with both respondents and census workers worried about opposition targeting. Analysts predict the military will likely resort to more violence to ensure elections proceed in areas under its control, while opposition forces may also resist.
The Chin Human Rights Organization called on Western democracies to preemptively denounce the junta's election plans. Debbie Stothard from Altsean-Burma highlighted concerns over escalating violence, noting a significant increase in airstrikes in 2024 compared to previous years, as the military targets unreachable opposition areas.
A statement from election experts, released by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, firmly rejected the junta's election plans, warning that such a vote would only deepen divisions and fuel violence, further entrenching authoritarian rule.
In January, Southeast Asian foreign ministers urged the junta to prioritize a ceasefire over elections. Despite these calls, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing reiterated plans for elections during a visit to Belarus, stating that 53 political parties had registered to participate. He also mentioned inviting Belarusian observers, referencing Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's controversial election victory.