Germany's far-right political faction, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), anticipates a significant surge in the country's upcoming elections. Despite being tagged as "radical", "racist", and "anti-democratic", and being seen as "anti-constitutional" by Germany's domestic intelligence service, the AfD is poised to become the nation's second-largest political party.
This development could have far-reaching implications not just for Germany but for the entirety of Europe. Right-wing populist parties have been gaining traction across the continent, and the AfD is no exception. The party aligns itself with the "anti-woke", staunchly anti-immigration, and pro-fossil fuel stances of Donald Trump. Like Trump, the AfD also advocates for a stop to arms exports to Ukraine and seeks to diffuse tensions with Russia.
Germany's influence as Europe's largest economy and the weight of its historical baggage make the rise of a far-right party even more significant. Following World War II and the Cold War, Germany, along with the UK and France, played a crucial role in establishing and sustaining Europe's liberal order and defense structures. The success of a hard-right party in post-war Germany could potentially pose a threat to the Federal Republic and its liberal constitution.
Marine Le Pen, the influential opposition leader in France, has distanced herself from the AfD due to the party's radical positions and ethno-nationalist reputation. However, this election is causing a change in perspective about Germany, especially as the AfD vehemently denies being an "extremist" party.
Germany's previously admired economic model is now under scrutiny. Long seen as a modern, dynamic, and technologically advanced nation, Germany is now criticized for its reliance on energy-intensive and outdated industries such as combustion-engine cars and the chemical industry. The lack of significant investment in research and development, big tech, and artificial intelligence is viewed as a failure to adapt to evolving times.
Additionally, Germany's economic situation has been further complicated by its increasing dependence during Angela Merkel's 16-year tenure as chancellor, which ended in 2021. The country's economy has been sluggish and sticky, causing frustration among European allies.
Furthermore, Germany's military state has been a source of discontent among European neighbors. The return of Donald Trump to the White House means that Europeans need to provide more of their own defense capabilities. Despite promising a turning point for Germany's military, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been unable to reverse its weakened state.
The AfD's stance on this issue is starkly different. The party advocates for a reconciliation with Russia, an immediate halt to sending weapons to Ukraine, and the use of resources to strengthen Germany's own armed forces.
Germany is also grappling with an infrastructure crisis due to chronic underinvestment, resulting in less reliable public services. A debt brake written into the German constitution following the 2008/9 financial crisis has further limited government spending.
Migration is another significant issue in Germany and a major vote-winner for the AfD. Germany has accepted over a million asylum seekers and 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees, but a series of attacks by immigrants has reignited debates about the openness of the country's borders. The AfD advocates for the immediate deportation of immigrants who commit crimes or arrive illegally.
It's important to note that a German court found that a significant part of the AfD believes that individuals with migrant heritage are not "properly German", even if they hold German citizenship. This contradicts the German constitution. Nonetheless, the AfD denies being a radical right-wing force and accuses its opponents of trying to suppress it.
Despite the possibility of the AfD becoming the second-largest force in parliament, it is highly unlikely to form part of Germany's next government due to the country's coalition-building political system designed to prevent any single party from dominating parliament. However, the influence of the AfD's views on migration and borders is already apparent in the rhetoric of Germany's center-left and center-right parties.