Why Democrats Struggle to Unite
In a recent podcast with Charlie Kirk, California Governor Gavin Newsom surprised many by calling the participation of transgender male athletes in women's sports "deeply unfair." This statement, made during a discussion with a prominent MAGA supporter, highlighted a growing trend within the Democratic Party: expressing doubts about transgender ideology while failing to take concrete action against it.
This inconsistency is not merely political maneuvering but a deeper structural issue. The Democratic Party is caught in a dilemma, needing to acknowledge the unpopularity of its activist base while still relying on it for crucial support in funding and organizing. As long as Democrats cannot distance themselves from their more extreme elements, Republicans will continue to use gender ideology as a critique of the party's governance abilities.
A poll from January revealed that a significant majority of Democrats, along with 79% of Americans, oppose allowing biological males to compete in women's sports. Despite this, when Republicans recently pushed for a Senate vote on a bill to restrict such participation, no Democrat broke ranks. Figures like John Fetterman and Elissa Slotkin, while expressing nuanced views, ultimately aligned with their party's stance, suggesting that these decisions should be left to parents and local communities.
The reluctance to shift positions underscores where the true power lies within the Democratic Party. While elected officials must appeal to voters, they are heavily influenced by activist groups that dominate primaries and policy-making. These groups have little interest in compromising on gender issues, pushing officials toward ideological purity rather than majority opinion.
This dynamic has alienated working-class and nonwhite voters, as noted by Ruy Teixeira and John Judis. However, for activists, taking extreme positions is a strategic move to mobilize support and control the party's agenda. The competitive nature of modern elections, as described by Frances Lee, forces parties to prioritize short-term gains, making them reliant on their most fervent supporters.
While Democratic voters may disagree with the party's stance on gender issues, they do not prioritize it enough to penalize the party at the polls. This allows a vocal minority to influence policy disproportionately. The uniformity among Democrats on gender issues highlights a deeper issue: the party's inability to break away from its activist fringe.
Governor Newsom's actions, such as signing the Transgender Respect, Agency, and Dignity Act, contrast with his recent statements, revealing the party's struggle to balance rhetoric with policy. Republicans are capitalizing on this by using gender issues to question Democrats' overall reliability. If Democrats cannot stand up to fringe activists on widely agreed-upon issues, it raises doubts about their governance on other matters.
In the end, Democrats are betting that voters' dislike for Donald Trump will outweigh their dissatisfaction with the party's concessions to its fringe. It is up to Republicans to challenge this assumption by proving their competence on key issues.