Four years ago, Sudan was celebrating the overthrow of its long-standing dictator, Omar al-Bashir, marking a hopeful turn towards democracy. Today, however, the nation is on the brink of collapse, reminiscent of the turmoil in Yemen or Libya.
Recently, fierce clashes erupted in Khartoum between rival military factions vying for control over strategic locations like airports and military bases. This violence has rapidly spread throughout the country, leaving about 45 million Sudanese trapped in their homes, fearing for their lives. The conflict has already claimed at least 180 lives, including three humanitarian workers from the World Food Programme.
The confrontation involves two powerful military groups: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti. Both factions have been accused of numerous human rights abuses.
Sudan's journey from ousting a dictator to facing potential state failure began on April 11, 2019, when Bashir was deposed following months of protests led by unions. This movement prompted a coup by both the SAF and RSF, with Burhan and Hemeti working together to remove Bashir.
The initial promise of democracy was palpable, with protesters creating a vibrant "sit-in" in Khartoum to demand change. However, grassroots movements like the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), which spearheaded the protests, often struggle to convert their momentum into lasting political influence. This difficulty is partly due to their decentralized nature, which lacks the hierarchical structure needed for political negotiations.
After Bashir's fall, civilian leaders entered talks with the military, but the pro-democracy forces were at a disadvantage. Their efforts were further undermined in June 2019 when RSF forces violently dispersed the sit-in, resulting in over 100 deaths.
In August 2019, a transitional constitution was signed, granting significant power to the SAF and RSF. Burhan became the head of state, and Hemeti gained a prominent political role. Although elections were promised for 2022, skepticism remained about their likelihood.
During this transitional period, Abdalla Hamdok, the civilian prime minister, faced significant challenges. The constitution limited his authority, while Burhan and Hemeti resisted major reforms. Hamdok viewed the revolution as cyclical, aiming to implement as many changes as possible before counterrevolutionary forces took over.
Meanwhile, violence outside Khartoum intensified, particularly in Darfur, where RSF troops instigated ethnic conflicts, displacing over 430,000 people. Atrocities against civilians were rampant, with RSF-aligned soldiers openly discussing their involvement in such acts.
Tensions between the SAF and RSF escalated, with Burhan viewing Hemeti's forces as undisciplined usurpers, while Hemeti believed it was time for Darfur to lead Sudan. Hamdok was on the verge of economic recovery when Burhan and the SAF staged a coup in October 2021, removing him from power.
Following the coup, international efforts to restore democracy in Sudan were criticized as ineffective. Attempts to unify the SAF and RSF into a single army failed, as neither leader wanted to relinquish power. This led to the recent outbreak of violence.
Despite setbacks, the struggle for democracy in Sudan continues. The lesson from Sudan is that a revolution is merely the beginning of change, not its conclusion. While the Sudanese people currently focus on survival, there remains hope that their democratic aspirations will one day be realized.