UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has noted significant developments since he proposed a "coalition of the willing" at a summit two weeks ago. The dynamics between the US and Ukraine have been intense, leading to a recent agreement on a 30-day ceasefire during a meeting in Riyadh. However, forming this coalition remains a complex task, with much groundwork needed before it can effectively contribute to peace efforts in Ukraine.
Sir Keir mentioned that the coalition has expanded and that new commitments are being discussed, though he did not provide specifics. During a virtual summit on Saturday, participants agreed to continue military support for Ukraine and to impose stricter economic sanctions on Russia to weaken President Vladimir Putin's military capabilities. The coalition is moving into an "operational phase," with military leaders set to convene in the UK next Thursday.
Sir Keir expressed optimism about building political and military momentum, suggesting that a series of political, diplomatic, and military meetings will gradually shape the plan. However, challenges remain. When questioned about the crucial US military support, referred to as a "backstop," the prime minister confirmed that the US stance is unchanged. European security advisors, including Jonathan Powell, who played a role in persuading Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to the US ceasefire proposal, were in Washington on Friday.
Without a shift in US President Donald Trump's position on the backstop, Sir Keir's coalition may face difficulties in gaining traction. For President Zelensky, time is of the essence, particularly in Kursk, where Ukrainian forces have been holding onto a diminishing piece of Russian territory since August 2024. Ukraine denies claims, promoted by Trump, that its forces are encircled in Kursk, but they are under significant pressure and losing ground.
During a visit to Kyiv late last year, Ukrainian soldiers mentioned that their hold on Kursk was intended as leverage for future negotiations. However, as talks near, Putin seems eager to eliminate this bargaining chip, which may explain his cautious acceptance of the 30-day ceasefire proposal.